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Red133
50336.8
442240.7
400340.6
Blue93
387535.1
1042120.2
956623.9
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions18110305015020025030035013393

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+1Auto
+8Teleop
+40Endgame
+40Fouls
AutonomousRed +1
9Leave3
0Coral scored#1
1Coral points6
10Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +7
16Coral scored#14
59Coral points52
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#4
12Processor points12
16Net points16
28Algae points28
87Total teleop80
Reef
7L4#7
3L3#5
3L2#2
3L1 · trough#1
22Game pieces#21
BargeRed +32
36Cage & park4
36Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +40
0Foul points0
133Total score93

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
40.71.5
47.145.5
Auto8.3
Teleop24.2
End8.2
red by 5.5
35.11.0
35.634.6
Auto5.8
Teleop24.1
End5.2
Second
40.61.5
41.640.1
Auto6.9
Teleop29.1
End4.6
red by 16.7
23.91.0
26.925.9
Auto3.4
Teleop19.3
End1.2
Third
503
#5
36.81.5
41.239.7
Auto8.1
Teleop19.6
End9.1
red by 16.5
20.21.0
15.614.6
Auto2.7
Teleop15.0
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
79%Auto oddsMissed81%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
22%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
88%Barge oddsEarned44%Barge oddsMissed