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Red187
924578.2
387535.1
1042120.2
Blue190
335734.2
191870.5
442240.7
23%Model gave it77%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions131189050100150250300187190

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+11
+7Teleop
Endgame+3
Fouls+3
AutonomousBlue +11
9Leave9
5Coral scored#7
23Coral points34
32Total auto43
TeleoperatedRed +18
30Coral scored#20
109Coral points71
1Processor algae#3
6Net algae#8
6Processor points18
24Net points32
30Algae points50
139Total teleop121
Reef
15L4#10
8L3#8
7L2#6
5L1 · trough#3
42Game pieces#38
BargeBlue +10
16Cage & park26
16Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +3
0Foul points0
187Total score190

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
78.23.1
68.972.0
Auto16.4
Teleop53.0
End8.7
red by 7.7
70.50.5
64.865.2
Auto11.8
Teleop48.4
End10.3
Second
35.13.1
32.635.6
Auto5.8
Teleop24.1
End5.2
blue by 5.5
40.70.5
50.350.8
Auto8.3
Teleop24.2
End8.2
Third
20.23.1
10.413.5
Auto2.7
Teleop15.0
End2.5
blue by 14.0
3357
#11
34.20.5
41.041.5
Auto10.3
Teleop22.7
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
77%Auto oddsEarned82%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
31%Coral oddsEarned44%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
61%Barge oddsEarned93%Barge oddsEarned