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Red168
442247.0
3380.0
607830.3
Blue140
20143.9
719742.8
30262.5
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions153148100120140160180168140

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+8Teleop
+28Endgame
+28Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
9Leave9
6Coral scored#4
28Coral points21
37Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +1
23Coral scored#18
81Coral points64
2Processor algae#2
3Net algae#7
12Processor points12
12Net points28
24Algae points40
105Total teleop104
Reef
10L4#6
9L3#9
7L2#3
3L1 · trough#4
34Game pieces#31
BargeRed +20
26Cage & park6
26Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +28
0Foul points0
168Total score140

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
33
#2
80.01.8
73.775.5
Auto19.5
Teleop50.3
End10.3
red by 17.5
302
#8
62.50.2
61.962.1
Auto16.9
Teleop42.3
End3.3
Second
47.01.8
39.241.0
Auto10.7
Teleop26.2
End10.2
red by 3.1
201
#11
43.90.2
36.937.0
Auto11.7
Teleop27.0
End5.3
Third
6078
#20
30.31.8
28.230.0
Auto2.2
Teleop23.3
End4.8
blue by 12.5
7197
#19
42.80.2
38.839.0
Auto11.8
Teleop29.7
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
81%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed49%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
94%Barge oddsEarned40%Barge oddsMissed