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Red122
610120.2
584344.6
213768.5
Blue77
566049.3
553340.4
456814.8
81%Model gave it19%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions129995015020012277

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+41Teleop
+39Endgame
+45Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
3Leave9
5Coral scored#0
27Coral points0
30Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +20
19Coral scored#13
68Coral points48
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#2
6Processor points6
8Net points8
14Algae points14
82Total teleop62
Reef
11L4#4
6L3#3
4L2#4
3L1 · trough#2
27Game pieces#16
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +45
6Foul points0
122Total score77

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
68.50.0
56.756.8
Auto17.9
Teleop41.5
End9.1
red by 19.2
5660
#13
49.31.2
42.241.0
Auto6.9
Teleop35.9
End6.6
Second
44.60.0
40.340.3
Auto9.5
Teleop28.1
End6.9
red by 4.2
5533
#22
40.41.1
32.831.7
Auto5.8
Teleop30.6
End4.0
Third
6101
#21
20.20.1
18.518.5
Auto5.5
Teleop12.6
End2.2
red by 5.4
4568
#36
14.81.1
18.517.4
Auto3.0
Teleop10.6
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
82%Auto oddsEarned80%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
12%Coral oddsEarned14%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
80%Barge oddsMissed59%Barge oddsMissed