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Red127
107651.5
610120.2
118842.7
Blue119
615233.8
921028.4
546069.1
29%Model gave it71%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions107127406080140160180200127119

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+25Auto
+22Teleop
+14Endgame
+8Fouls
AutonomousRed +25
0Leave3
9Coral scored#3
44Coral points16
44Total auto19
TeleoperatedBlue +3
14Coral scored#17
49Coral points60
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#2
12Processor points12
16Net points8
28Algae points20
77Total teleop80
Reef
10L4#9
6L3#7
4L2#3
3L1 · trough#1
29Game pieces#24
BargeBlue +8
6Cage & park14
6Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +8
0Foul points6
127Total score119

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
51.51.8
44.246.0
Auto14.0
Teleop35.0
End2.4
blue by 17.6
69.10.0
61.161.1
Auto21.3
Teleop41.6
End6.2
Second
42.71.8
37.839.6
Auto10.0
Teleop29.5
End3.2
red by 8.8
6152
#23
33.80.0
24.624.6
Auto6.8
Teleop24.0
End3.1
Third
6101
#21
20.22.9
18.521.5
Auto5.5
Teleop12.6
End2.2
blue by 8.1
9210
#17
28.40.0
27.027.0
Auto5.7
Teleop20.5
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
77%Auto oddsEarned93%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
26%Coral oddsMissed36%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
26%Barge oddsMissed30%Barge oddsEarned