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Red101
876721.8
553340.4
615233.8
Blue82
570827.1
456814.8
515022.8
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions937005015010182

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+19Teleop
+19Endgame
+19Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
6Leave6
1Coral scored#1
7Coral points3
13Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +15
15Coral scored#13
54Coral points47
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#2
12Processor points12
16Net points8
28Algae points20
82Total teleop67
Reef
6L4#4
3L3#5
3L2#2
4L1 · trough#3
22Game pieces#18
Bargelevel
6Cage & park6
6Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +19
0Foul points0
101Total score82

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5533
#22
40.41.1
34.135.2
Auto5.8
Teleop30.6
End4.0
red by 13.3
5708
#33
27.10.9
25.026.0
Auto3.7
Teleop20.4
End3.1
Second
6152
#23
33.81.9
27.729.6
Auto6.8
Teleop24.0
End3.1
red by 11.1
5150
#29
22.80.9
19.320.2
Auto6.0
Teleop15.2
End1.6
Third
8767
#31
21.81.1
16.317.4
Auto4.7
Teleop15.7
End1.4
red by 7.0
4568
#36
14.80.9
18.819.7
Auto3.0
Teleop10.6
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
68%Auto oddsEarned53%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
43%Barge oddsMissed16%Barge oddsMissed