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Red116
83020.8
546069.1
222426.6
Blue109
332243.6
921028.4
553340.4
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions124107406080140160180116109

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+5Teleop
+7Endgame
+7Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
0Leave3
7Coral scored#3
37Coral points13
37Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +16
9Coral scored#19
33Coral points67
2Processor algae#1
5Net algae#2
12Processor points6
20Net points8
32Algae points14
65Total teleop81
Reef
5L4#9
6L3#6
4L2#3
1L1 · trough#4
23Game pieces#25
BargeRed +2
14Cage & park12
14Total endgame12
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +7
0Foul points0
116Total score109

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
69.10.1
67.067.1
Auto21.3
Teleop41.6
End6.2
red by 25.4
3322
#15
43.60.5
40.641.1
Auto10.8
Teleop25.0
End7.8
Second
2224
#32
26.60.2
30.030.2
Auto4.9
Teleop21.4
End0.3
blue by 13.8
5533
#22
40.40.5
36.536.9
Auto5.8
Teleop30.6
End4.0
Third
830
#26
20.80.1
17.317.4
Auto4.1
Teleop12.8
End3.9
blue by 7.5
9210
#17
28.40.5
24.825.3
Auto5.7
Teleop20.5
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
84%Auto oddsEarned93%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
51%Coral oddsEarned10%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
42%Barge oddsEarned46%Barge oddsMissed