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Red153
658820.1
276761.0
362054.8
Blue81
205444.5
107640.4
423722.9
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1531185010020015381

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+27Auto
+52Teleop
+66Endgame
+72Fouls
AutonomousRed +27
6Leave3
8Coral scored#3
41Coral points17
47Total auto20
TeleoperatedRed +25
17Coral scored#11
62Coral points41
1Processor algae#1
4Net algae#3
6Processor points6
16Net points12
22Algae points18
84Total teleop59
Reef
7L4#6
6L3#3
5L2#3
7L1 · trough#2
30Game pieces#18
BargeRed +14
16Cage & park2
16Total endgame2
Penalties & totalRed +72
6Foul points0
153Total score81

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
61.00.3
60.761.0
Auto19.9
Teleop35.9
End5.2
red by 16.4
44.50.6
45.244.5
Auto7.8
Teleop34.8
End1.9
Second
54.80.3
54.554.8
Auto13.0
Teleop30.6
End11.2
red by 14.4
40.40.6
41.040.4
Auto6.7
Teleop31.4
End2.3
Third
6588
#15
20.10.3
19.820.1
Auto6.9
Teleop10.6
End2.6
blue by 2.8
4237
#19
22.90.6
23.622.9
Auto5.3
Teleop17.0
End0.6