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Red128
107640.4
963816.4
362054.8
Blue70
518216.7
954915.1
584340.3
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions96692040608012014012870

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
+48Teleop
+58Endgame
+58Fouls
AutonomousRed +6
0Leave6
4Coral scored#1
19Coral points7
19Total auto13
TeleoperatedRed +42
15Coral scored#9
55Coral points33
2Processor algae#2
7Net algae#2
12Processor points12
28Net points8
40Algae points20
95Total teleop53
Reef
5L4#5
5L3#2
7L2#1
2L1 · trough#2
28Game pieces#14
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +58
0Foul points0
128Total score70

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
54.84.3
37.541.8
Auto13.0
Teleop30.6
End11.2
red by 14.5
40.30.0
28.928.9
Auto5.5
Teleop28.2
End6.6
Second
40.44.3
32.136.4
Auto6.7
Teleop31.4
End2.3
red by 23.7
5182
#30
16.70.0
15.915.9
Auto3.6
Teleop11.9
End1.3
Third
9638
#35
16.44.3
10.514.8
Auto3.2
Teleop11.1
End2.1
red by 1.4
9549
#33
15.10.0
17.717.7
Auto2.5
Teleop10.7
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
59%Auto oddsEarned26%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
53%Barge oddsEarned42%Barge oddsMissed