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Red81
555923.4
725620.8
107640.4
Blue79
362054.8
423722.9
781412.8
30%Model gave it70%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions88994060801201408179

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
+14Teleop
+2Endgame
+2Fouls
AutonomousBlue +4
0Leave6
4Coral scored#3
19Coral points17
19Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +18
10Coral scored#8
36Coral points28
1Processor algae#0
4Net algae#3
6Processor points0
16Net points12
22Algae points12
58Total teleop40
Reef
4L4#3
5L3#4
3L2#2
2L1 · trough#2
19Game pieces#14
BargeBlue +12
4Cage & park16
4Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +2
0Foul points0
81Total score79

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
40.40.4
40.440.8
Auto6.7
Teleop31.4
End2.3
blue by 14.4
54.80.8
47.346.5
Auto13.0
Teleop30.6
End11.2
Second
5559
#23
23.40.4
21.021.4
Auto7.0
Teleop15.1
End1.3
red by 0.5
4237
#19
22.90.8
24.924.1
Auto5.3
Teleop17.0
End0.6
Third
7256
#13
20.80.3
15.715.9
Auto4.6
Teleop14.0
End2.2
red by 8.0
7814
#24
12.80.8
14.914.1
Auto3.9
Teleop5.9
End3.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
74%Auto oddsEarned56%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
18%Barge oddsMissed57%Barge oddsEarned