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Red68
652820.5
781412.8
611420.3
Blue57
365832.8
876713.5
432513.3
26%Model gave it74%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions617720401001206857

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+5Teleop
+7Endgame
+11Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
3Leave6
3Coral scored#1
13Coral points7
16Total auto13
TeleoperatedRed +2
7Coral scored#8
24Coral points30
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#1
6Processor points6
12Net points4
18Algae points10
42Total teleop40
Reef
3L4#4
3L3#3
2L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
14Game pieces#11
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +11
4Foul points0
68Total score57

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6528
#11
20.50.6
17.618.1
Auto5.8
Teleop11.4
End3.4
blue by 12.2
3658
#16
32.80.9
31.630.7
Auto5.3
Teleop26.6
End0.9
Second
6114
#14
20.30.6
19.920.4
Auto2.9
Teleop14.3
End3.2
red by 6.8
8767
#40
13.50.8
15.214.4
Auto3.7
Teleop8.7
End1.1
Third
7814
#24
12.80.6
14.114.7
Auto3.9
Teleop5.9
End3.0
blue by 0.5
4325
#39
13.30.8
14.113.3
Auto3.2
Teleop6.6
End3.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
45%Auto oddsEarned60%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
47%Barge oddsMissed22%Barge oddsMissed