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Red157
496132.8
562323.1
46949.2
Blue122
977635.9
552721.1
150652.7
21%Model gave it79%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions971196080140160180157122

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+8Auto
+39Teleop
+29Endgame
+35Fouls
AutonomousRed +8
3Leave6
5Coral scored#3
27Coral points16
30Total auto22
TeleoperatedRed +31
19Coral scored#16
69Coral points56
5Processor algae#2
4Net algae#4
30Processor points12
16Net points16
46Algae points28
115Total teleop84
Reef
10L4#9
6L3#6
4L2#3
4L1 · trough#1
33Game pieces#25
BargeBlue +10
6Cage & park16
6Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +35
6Foul points0
157Total score122

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
469
#15
49.24.0
46.250.2
Auto13.3
Teleop32.7
End3.3
blue by 3.5
52.71.1
49.350.4
Auto11.9
Teleop32.5
End8.4
Second
4961
#18
32.84.0
25.629.6
Auto4.5
Teleop27.5
End0.7
blue by 3.1
35.91.1
31.632.7
Auto6.1
Teleop25.6
End4.2
Third
5623
#21
23.14.0
16.220.2
Auto4.7
Teleop15.6
End2.8
red by 2.1
5527
#19
21.11.1
21.923.0
Auto4.4
Teleop14.5
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
76%Auto oddsEarned91%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
2%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
23%Barge oddsMissed73%Barge oddsEarned