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Red53
224616.8
542427.6
779418.7
Blue54
482719.0
861121.0
716026.9
46%Model gave it54%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6669204060801001205354

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+5
Endgame+1
Fouls+1
AutonomousBlue +3
3Leave3
1Coral scored#2
6Coral points9
9Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +2
8Coral scored#8
28Coral points30
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#1
6Processor points6
4Net points4
10Algae points10
38Total teleop40
Reef
3L4#3
2L3#3
2L2#2
2L1 · trough#2
11Game pieces#12
BargeRed +4
6Cage & park2
6Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +1
0Foul points0
53Total score54

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5424
#17
27.61.6
25.223.7
Auto4.3
Teleop20.2
End3.1
red by 0.7
7160
#32
26.91.2
24.623.4
Auto3.9
Teleop20.3
End2.7
Second
7794
#39
18.70.9
18.517.5
Auto4.3
Teleop11.9
End2.5
blue by 2.3
8611
#24
21.01.2
20.219.0
Auto3.7
Teleop15.6
End1.7
Third
2246
#23
16.80.9
17.316.4
Auto2.5
Teleop11.2
End3.2
blue by 2.2
4827
#30
19.00.7
17.116.4
Auto4.4
Teleop14.2
End0.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
34%Auto oddsMissed38%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
42%Barge oddsMissed19%Barge oddsMissed