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Red179
561031.1
920734.6
571249.1
Blue115
724818.7
400333.9
525624.2
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11876050100150200179115

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+18Auto
+52Teleop
+64Endgame
+64Fouls
AutonomousRed +18
3Leave3
5Coral scored#1
24Coral points6
27Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +34
22Coral scored#21
80Coral points74
3Processor algae#1
7Net algae#3
18Processor points6
28Net points12
46Algae points18
126Total teleop92
Reef
9L4#6
8L3#9
7L2#4
3L1 · trough#3
37Game pieces#26
BargeRed +12
26Cage & park14
26Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +64
0Foul points0
179Total score115

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5712
#11
49.14.1
43.847.9
Auto10.2
Teleop34.7
End4.2
red by 15.2
4003
#23
33.91.6
32.133.6
Auto6.4
Teleop26.4
End1.1
Second
9207
#21
34.64.1
30.534.6
Auto4.7
Teleop26.7
End3.3
red by 10.4
5256
#35
24.21.7
22.524.2
Auto3.1
Teleop18.8
End2.4
Third
5610
#17
31.14.1
24.828.9
Auto5.2
Teleop16.3
End9.6
red by 12.4
7248
#16
18.71.6
15.917.4
Auto5.6
Teleop9.9
End3.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
44%Auto oddsEarned77%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
11%Coral oddsMissed9%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
77%Barge oddsEarned20%Barge oddsEarned