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Red140
345828.2
592736.8
571249.1
Blue146
335745.2
561031.1
508435.8
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions125117050100150200250300140146

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+14Teleop
Endgame+6
Fouls+6
AutonomousRed +14
6Leave9
5Coral scored#1
24Coral points7
30Total auto16
Teleoperatedlevel
23Coral scored#17
82Coral points62
2Processor algae#4
3Net algae#5
12Processor points24
12Net points20
24Algae points44
106Total teleop106
Reef
11L4#8
7L3#5
6L2#2
4L1 · trough#3
33Game pieces#27
BargeBlue +20
4Cage & park24
4Total endgame24
Penalties & totalBlue +6
0Foul points0
140Total score146

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5712
#11
49.10.6
47.948.5
Auto10.2
Teleop34.7
End4.2
red by 3.9
3357
#10
45.20.8
43.143.9
Auto7.3
Teleop32.0
End5.9
Second
5927
#15
36.80.6
35.636.2
Auto6.8
Teleop27.1
End2.9
red by 1.0
35.80.8
33.734.6
Auto4.9
Teleop26.8
End4.1
Third
28.20.6
27.027.6
Auto5.2
Teleop21.4
End1.6
blue by 2.8
5610
#17
31.10.8
28.929.8
Auto5.2
Teleop16.3
End9.6