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Red99
118825.7
332246.9
657038.5
Blue70
608132.0
7660B16.1
168436.4
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1571030502002509970

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+33Teleop
+35Endgame
+29Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
6Leave9
5Coral scored#0
24Coral points0
30Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +12
14Coral scored#10
49Coral points37
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#2
6Processor points6
8Net points8
14Algae points14
63Total teleop51
Reef
6L4#3
7L3#4
4L2#2
2L1 · trough#1
22Game pieces#13
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +29
0Foul points6
99Total score70

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3322
#20
46.93.0
53.150.1
Auto10.4
Teleop30.5
End6.0
red by 10.5
1684
#19
36.42.8
44.441.5
Auto7.1
Teleop25.7
End3.6
Second
6570
#28
38.53.0
45.842.8
Auto7.1
Teleop21.0
End10.3
red by 6.5
6081
#25
32.02.8
35.032.1
Auto5.7
Teleop20.4
End5.9
Third
25.73.0
32.629.6
Auto9.6
Teleop14.3
End1.7
red by 9.5
16.14.7
12.17.4
Auto2.1
Teleop13.0
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
91%Auto oddsEarned40%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
16%Coral oddsMissed17%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
86%Barge oddsMissed56%Barge oddsMissed