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Red214
747224.7
170691.8
580177.2
Blue98
806925.4
942839.7
512629.7
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2167905010015025030035021498

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+49Auto
+84Teleop
+116Endgame
+116Fouls
AutonomousRed +49
6Leave6
10Coral scored#1
52Coral points3
58Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +35
22Coral scored#18
78Coral points65
3Processor algae#2
6Net algae#2
18Processor points12
24Net points8
42Algae points20
120Total teleop85
Reef
8L4#10
13L3#4
6L2#3
5L1 · trough#2
41Game pieces#23
BargeRed +32
36Cage & park4
36Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +116
0Foul points0
214Total score98

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
91.81.2
92.693.8
Auto22.6
Teleop57.4
End11.8
red by 52.1
39.70.0
32.132.2
Auto6.7
Teleop29.9
End3.1
Second
77.21.2
68.069.2
Auto17.8
Teleop50.9
End8.5
red by 47.5
5126
#12
29.70.0
30.630.6
Auto8.0
Teleop21.2
End0.5
Third
24.71.2
23.624.8
Auto6.5
Teleop14.5
End3.7
blue by 0.7
8069
#25
25.40.0
23.423.5
Auto2.9
Teleop19.8
End2.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
85%Auto oddsEarned59%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
80%Coral oddsEarned4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
92%Barge oddsEarned71%Barge oddsMissed