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Red97
501326.7
882543.6
Blue86
495918.9
75729.1
639135.2
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions102954060801201401609786

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+15Teleop
+17Endgame
+11Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
6Leave3
1Coral scored#1
3Coral points3
9Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +12
14Coral scored#10
50Coral points36
2Processor algae#1
2Net algae#4
12Processor points6
8Net points16
20Algae points22
70Total teleop58
Reef
4L4#4
6L3#3
2L2#2
3L1 · trough#2
19Game pieces#16
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +11
2Foul points8
97Total score86

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
43.61.6
40.939.3
Auto4.2
Teleop33.5
End5.9
red by 8.4
6391
#13
35.22.1
37.335.2
Auto8.6
Teleop21.4
End5.1
Second
5013
#23
26.71.6
37.235.7
Auto6.7
Teleop15.7
End4.3
blue by 2.5
757
#4
29.12.1
27.125.0
Auto4.5
Teleop17.5
End7.1
Third
9.51.6
10.58.9
Auto3.7
Teleop4.7
End1.1
blue by 9.4
4959
#27
18.92.1
18.616.5
Auto4.1
Teleop13.3
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
46%Auto oddsMissed92%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed10%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
38%Barge oddsEarned92%Barge oddsEarned