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Red167
942839.7
172326.7
198675.0
Blue147
580177.2
199722.0
639135.2
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions141140100110120130150160170167147

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+1
+32Teleop
+20Endgame
+20Fouls
AutonomousBlue +1
6Leave0
5Coral scored#6
24Coral points31
30Total auto31
TeleoperatedRed +33
23Coral scored#18
83Coral points64
5Processor algae#2
5Net algae#6
30Processor points12
20Net points24
50Algae points36
133Total teleop100
Reef
8L4#10
11L3#7
4L2#4
5L1 · trough#3
38Game pieces#32
BargeBlue +12
4Cage & park16
4Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +20
0Foul points0
167Total score147

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
75.02.6
69.972.5
Auto18.3
Teleop48.0
End8.7
blue by 2.3
77.21.3
69.470.7
Auto17.8
Teleop50.9
End8.5
Second
39.72.6
32.435.0
Auto6.7
Teleop29.9
End3.1
red by 4.5
6391
#13
35.21.3
35.236.5
Auto8.6
Teleop21.4
End5.1
Third
1723
#22
26.72.6
25.628.3
Auto3.5
Teleop20.8
End2.4
red by 4.7
1997
#26
22.01.3
23.324.5
Auto4.3
Teleop15.9
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
74%Auto oddsEarned85%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed33%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
85%Barge oddsMissed76%Barge oddsEarned