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Red172
450059.9
170691.8
199722.0
Blue150
501326.7
198772.5
495918.9
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions20415250100250300172150

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
+20Teleop
+28Endgame
+22Fouls
AutonomousBlue +14
0Leave3
5Coral scored#7
23Coral points34
23Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +34
25Coral scored#15
91Coral points53
3Processor algae#3
4Net algae#5
18Processor points18
16Net points20
34Algae points38
125Total teleop91
Reef
16L4#10
7L3#6
4L2#4
3L1 · trough#2
37Game pieces#30
BargeRed +8
24Cage & park16
24Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +22
0Foul points6
172Total score150

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
91.81.0
92.691.6
Auto22.6
Teleop57.4
End11.8
red by 19.3
72.50.1
76.076.1
Auto18.6
Teleop45.4
End8.4
Second
59.91.0
63.762.7
Auto17.4
Teleop35.1
End7.4
red by 33.2
5013
#23
26.70.1
41.942.1
Auto6.7
Teleop15.7
End4.3
Third
1997
#26
22.01.0
30.329.3
Auto4.3
Teleop15.9
End1.8
red by 3.1
4959
#27
18.90.1
24.424.5
Auto4.1
Teleop13.3
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
92%Auto oddsEarned93%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
83%Coral oddsMissed22%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
69%Barge oddsEarned85%Barge oddsEarned