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Red222
170691.8
495918.9
198772.5
Blue78
639135.2
684321.4
512629.7
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2108005010015025030022278

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+32Auto
+148Teleop
+150Endgame
+144Fouls
AutonomousRed +32
3Leave0
10Coral scored#5
52Coral points23
55Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +116
31Coral scored#7
113Coral points25
3Processor algae#1
5Net algae#1
18Processor points6
20Net points4
38Algae points10
151Total teleop35
Reef
18L4#5
8L3#3
9L2#2
6L1 · trough#2
49Game pieces#14
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +144
0Foul points6
222Total score78

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
91.81.0
90.391.2
Auto22.6
Teleop57.4
End11.8
red by 56.6
6391
#13
35.20.4
36.035.6
Auto8.6
Teleop21.4
End5.1
Second
72.51.0
71.071.9
Auto18.6
Teleop45.4
End8.4
red by 42.8
5126
#12
29.70.4
30.530.1
Auto8.0
Teleop21.2
End0.5
Third
4959
#27
18.91.0
17.418.3
Auto4.1
Teleop13.3
End1.4
blue by 2.6
6843
#14
21.40.4
21.821.4
Auto4.1
Teleop10.1
End7.2