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Red191
298750.1
310038.0
212954.4
Blue131
205248.2
282333.4
340720.5
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions157102050200250300191131

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+48Teleop
+58Endgame
+60Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
0Leave3
7Coral scored#5
37Coral points27
37Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +41
25Coral scored#18
90Coral points65
5Processor algae#3
4Net algae#3
30Processor points18
16Net points12
46Algae points30
136Total teleop95
Reef
15L4#9
5L3#5
7L2#5
5L1 · trough#4
41Game pieces#29
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Penalties & totalRed +60
2Foul points0
191Total score131

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2129
#12
54.41.2
52.653.7
Auto16.2
Teleop36.9
End1.3
red by 6.2
2052
#22
48.20.7
46.547.3
Auto10.5
Teleop31.4
End6.2
Second
50.11.2
48.349.4
Auto11.1
Teleop31.7
End7.3
red by 16.7
33.40.7
31.732.4
Auto9.3
Teleop21.6
End2.4
Third
3100
#10
38.01.2
36.137.3
Auto1.2
Teleop30.6
End6.1
red by 17.4
20.50.7
19.820.5
Auto4.5
Teleop13.3
End2.7