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Red60
882120.0
453620.9
52531.2
Blue106
284762.0
419826.5
282333.4
34%Model gave it66%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9714705020025030035040060106

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+36
Endgame+46
Fouls+46
AutonomousBlue +3
3Leave3
2Coral scored#3
10Coral points13
13Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +33
8Coral scored#13
29Coral points48
1Processor algae#2
2Net algae#4
6Processor points12
8Net points16
14Algae points28
43Total teleop76
Reef
2L4#8
4L3#3
2L2#2
2L1 · trough#3
13Game pieces#22
BargeBlue +10
4Cage & park14
4Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +46
0Foul points0
60Total score106

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
525
#36
31.22.3
36.634.3
Auto6.0
Teleop22.8
End2.4
blue by 30.8
2847
#19
62.01.7
65.463.7
Auto15.1
Teleop38.4
End8.5
Second
4536
#30
20.92.3
27.324.9
Auto0.9
Teleop18.4
End1.6
blue by 12.4
33.41.7
33.331.6
Auto9.3
Teleop21.6
End2.4
Third
8821
#20
20.02.3
27.825.5
Auto3.5
Teleop16.2
End0.2
blue by 6.5
4198
#13
26.51.7
26.624.9
Auto4.2
Teleop15.1
End7.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
74%Auto oddsMissed90%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
9%Coral oddsMissed20%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
24%Barge oddsMissed89%Barge oddsEarned