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Red79
253057.3
621716.8
361012.7
Blue49
882120.0
250224.0
851614.9
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions102730501502002503003504007949

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+22Teleop
+36Endgame
+30Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
3Leave6
3Coral scored#1
13Coral points7
16Total auto13
TeleoperatedRed +19
10Coral scored#5
37Coral points18
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#1
6Processor points6
4Net points4
10Algae points10
47Total teleop28
Reef
5L4#3
3L3#1
3L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
15Game pieces#8
BargeRed +14
16Cage & park2
16Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +30
0Foul points6
79Total score49

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
57.30.7
57.857.1
Auto11.0
Teleop37.2
End9.1
red by 33.3
2502
#24
24.01.9
28.927.0
Auto4.8
Teleop13.3
End5.9
Second
6217
#15
16.80.7
21.220.5
Auto5.0
Teleop8.8
End3.0
blue by 3.1
8821
#20
20.01.9
25.523.7
Auto3.5
Teleop16.2
End0.2
Third
12.70.7
10.69.8
Auto1.0
Teleop9.9
End1.9
blue by 2.2
8516
#29
14.91.9
16.614.7
Auto4.2
Teleop7.1
End3.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
74%Auto oddsEarned73%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
9%Coral oddsMissed2%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
86%Barge oddsEarned46%Barge oddsEarned