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Red100
238336.8
591342.9
304211.2
Blue72
223923.5
569028.1
329814.9
95%Model gave it5%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1046320408012014016010072

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+10Teleop
+36Endgame
+28Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
3Leave9
3Coral scored#1
13Coral points3
16Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +6
12Coral scored#9
42Coral points34
2Processor algae#1
1Net algae#3
12Processor points6
4Net points12
16Algae points18
58Total teleop52
Reef
6L4#3
3L3#3
4L2#2
2L1 · trough#2
18Game pieces#14
BargeRed +26
26Cage & park0
26Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +28
0Foul points8
100Total score72

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
42.90.9
42.643.6
Auto7.3
Teleop28.0
End7.6
red by 14.8
5690
#20
28.10.1
23.623.5
Auto5.6
Teleop21.4
End1.1
Second
36.80.9
33.934.9
Auto8.2
Teleop19.9
End8.7
red by 13.4
2239
#49
23.50.1
23.223.1
Auto3.2
Teleop18.1
End2.1
Third
3042
#41
11.20.9
11.412.4
Auto3.2
Teleop6.0
End2.0
blue by 3.7
3298
#25
14.90.1
15.615.5
Auto6.1
Teleop7.9
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
72%Auto oddsEarned65%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
67%Barge oddsEarned17%Barge oddsMissed