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Red126
614743.3
310043.0
702847.8
Blue38
88368.8
851620.8
451117.9
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1086705015020012638

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+38Auto
+68Teleop
+88Endgame
+88Fouls
AutonomousRed +38
3Leave6
8Coral scored#0
41Coral points0
44Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +30
12Coral scored#6
44Coral points20
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#2
6Processor points0
8Net points8
14Algae points8
58Total teleop28
Reef
9L4#2
4L3#1
4L2#2
3L1 · trough#1
23Game pieces#8
BargeRed +20
24Cage & park4
24Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +88
0Foul points0
126Total score38

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7028
#20
47.83.6
36.039.5
Auto12.5
Teleop27.5
End7.8
red by 27.0
8516
#28
20.83.2
27.724.6
Auto4.4
Teleop14.3
End2.1
Second
43.33.6
31.435.0
Auto10.6
Teleop25.0
End7.7
red by 25.4
4511
#50
17.93.2
21.318.2
Auto2.7
Teleop13.6
End1.5
Third
3100
#10
43.03.6
23.627.1
Auto5.8
Teleop32.1
End5.2
red by 34.2
8836
#52
8.83.2
14.811.7
Auto2.9
Teleop2.8
End3.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
69%Auto oddsEarned48%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
48%Barge oddsEarned23%Barge oddsMissed