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Red43
320630.0
638119.0
465625.9
Blue49
469316.4
786420.5
418123.5
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions776902040601001201404349

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
Teleop+18
Endgame+6
Fouls+6
Autonomouslevel
9Leave3
0Coral scored#1
0Coral points6
9Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +18
4Coral scored#8
16Coral points28
0Processor algae#1
1Net algae#1
0Processor points6
4Net points4
4Algae points10
20Total teleop38
Reef
2L4#3
1L3#4
0L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
5Game pieces#11
BargeRed +12
14Cage & park2
14Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +6
0Foul points0
43Total score49

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3206
#15
30.02.6
25.222.6
Auto5.6
Teleop20.8
End3.6
red by 6.5
4181
#41
23.51.3
20.319.0
Auto5.1
Teleop17.7
End0.7
Second
25.92.6
18.716.1
Auto4.0
Teleop13.0
End8.9
red by 5.4
7864
#32
20.51.3
21.019.7
Auto5.0
Teleop11.4
End4.1
Third
6381
#39
19.02.6
22.419.8
Auto2.4
Teleop13.7
End2.9
red by 2.6
4693
#27
16.41.3
19.418.1
Auto3.8
Teleop9.6
End3.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
38%Auto oddsMissed44%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
41%Barge oddsEarned39%Barge oddsMissed