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Red131
87652.2
812229.2
474130.5
Blue90
467431.4
326729.2
218125.6
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1066105015020013190

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+9Teleop
+17Endgame
+41Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
0Leave3
2Coral scored#2
9Coral points9
9Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +12
14Coral scored#15
50Coral points54
3Processor algae#1
4Net algae#3
18Processor points6
16Net points12
34Algae points18
84Total teleop72
Reef
6L4#7
5L3#5
2L2#3
3L1 · trough#2
23Game pieces#21
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +41
24Foul points0
131Total score90

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
876
#1
52.21.2
36.137.4
Auto8.8
Teleop36.7
End6.7
red by 20.8
4674
#18
31.43.1
21.824.9
Auto5.5
Teleop18.3
End7.6
Second
4741
#16
30.51.2
23.725.0
Auto5.1
Teleop22.5
End2.9
red by 1.3
3267
#36
29.23.1
14.117.2
Auto4.1
Teleop23.9
End1.2
Third
8122
#34
29.21.2
30.031.2
Auto5.1
Teleop18.1
End6.0
red by 3.6
2181
#26
25.63.1
21.324.4
Auto4.1
Teleop16.8
End4.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
58%Auto oddsMissed28%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
47%Barge oddsEarned43%Barge oddsMissed