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Red60
621716.0
631815.9
851620.8
Blue30
1049016.9
401117.3
320630.0
30%Model gave it70%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions789240601001201406030

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+12Teleop
+12Endgame
+30Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
9Leave3
0Coral scored#2
0Coral points9
9Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +15
5Coral scored#3
19Coral points10
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#1
6Processor points0
4Net points4
10Algae points4
29Total teleop14
Reef
2L4#2
1L3#1
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
7Game pieces#6
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +30
18Foul points0
60Total score30

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8516
#28
20.82.8
28.125.3
Auto4.4
Teleop14.3
End2.1
blue by 9.2
3206
#15
30.05.2
23.518.3
Auto5.6
Teleop20.8
End3.6
Second
6217
#37
16.02.8
22.619.8
Auto3.6
Teleop12.1
End0.3
blue by 1.3
4011
#49
17.35.2
26.621.3
Auto2.0
Teleop12.4
End2.9
Third
6318
#43
15.92.8
14.211.4
Auto1.7
Teleop12.0
End2.2
blue by 1.0
16.95.2
24.118.9
Auto3.7
Teleop11.8
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
48%Auto oddsMissed52%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
15%Barge oddsEarned57%Barge oddsMissed