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Red128
285530.9
460768.4
565832.4
Blue103
534847.8
662814.7
703822.9
92%Model gave it8%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13774050100150200250128103

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+1Auto
+31Teleop
+25Endgame
+25Fouls
AutonomousRed +1
6Leave3
2Coral scored#2
10Coral points12
16Total auto15
TeleoperatedRed +30
22Coral scored#14
80Coral points52
1Processor algae#2
4Net algae#2
6Processor points12
16Net points8
22Algae points20
102Total teleop72
Reef
9L4#5
6L3#6
5L2#4
4L1 · trough#1
29Game pieces#20
BargeBlue +6
10Cage & park16
10Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +25
0Foul points0
128Total score103

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
68.40.1
65.765.6
Auto14.1
Teleop47.2
End7.1
red by 20.6
47.81.2
42.443.6
Auto9.5
Teleop30.9
End7.4
Second
32.40.2
22.222.0
Auto6.5
Teleop21.2
End4.7
red by 9.6
7038
#24
22.91.2
14.816.0
Auto4.0
Teleop16.5
End2.3
Third
2855
#29
30.90.2
28.228.1
Auto5.6
Teleop18.9
End6.4
red by 16.2
6628
#39
14.71.7
16.418.1
Auto5.8
Teleop7.0
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
84%Auto oddsEarned53%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
13%Coral oddsEarned5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
70%Barge oddsMissed57%Barge oddsEarned