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Red121
285530.9
305840.1
465634.2
Blue75
624422.8
710336.4
767724.5
91%Model gave it9%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10556015020012175

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+18Auto
+26Teleop
+46Endgame
+46Fouls
AutonomousRed +18
9Leave9
4Coral scored#0
18Coral points0
27Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +8
12Coral scored#12
42Coral points44
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#3
12Processor points6
16Net points12
28Algae points18
70Total teleop62
Reef
6L4#4
5L3#4
3L2#3
2L1 · trough#1
22Game pieces#16
BargeRed +20
24Cage & park4
24Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +46
0Foul points0
121Total score75

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
40.11.3
34.135.4
Auto6.5
Teleop25.8
End7.8
red by 3.7
7103
#18
36.40.7
19.820.5
Auto10.1
Teleop24.5
End1.9
Second
34.21.4
31.733.2
Auto7.9
Teleop17.6
End8.7
red by 9.7
7677
#38
24.50.7
21.922.6
Auto4.1
Teleop17.5
End3.0
Third
2855
#29
30.91.4
28.129.5
Auto5.6
Teleop18.9
End6.4
red by 8.1
6244
#47
22.81.1
14.815.9
Auto4.0
Teleop17.0
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
93%Auto oddsEarned74%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
80%Barge oddsEarned59%Barge oddsMissed