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Red122
785839.9
706826.4
851625.7
Blue112
423928.6
703822.9
604557.7
20%Model gave it80%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions81107204060100120140160122112

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+6
Teleop+16
Endgame+2
+10Fouls
AutonomousBlue +6
6Leave3
1Coral scored#3
7Coral points16
13Total auto19
TeleoperatedBlue +10
16Coral scored#15
57Coral points53
2Processor algae#3
3Net algae#5
12Processor points18
12Net points20
24Algae points38
81Total teleop91
Reef
5L4#4
4L3#6
4L2#5
4L1 · trough#3
22Game pieces#26
BargeRed +14
16Cage & park2
16Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +10
12Foul points0
122Total score112

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7858
#17
39.92.9
28.831.7
Auto8.3
Teleop30.6
End1.0
blue by 17.8
6045
#20
57.70.4
51.151.5
Auto7.4
Teleop48.8
End1.5
Second
7068
#33
26.41.9
25.127.0
Auto3.4
Teleop19.8
End3.2
blue by 2.2
4239
#37
28.60.6
24.224.9
Auto6.1
Teleop20.9
End1.6
Third
8516
#25
25.71.9
20.922.9
Auto3.9
Teleop16.5
End5.3
red by 2.9
7038
#24
22.90.4
16.016.5
Auto4.0
Teleop16.5
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
71%Auto oddsEarned71%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
53%Barge oddsEarned26%Barge oddsMissed