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Red151
460768.4
617535.6
422615.8
Blue128
725756.0
250326.7
418218.0
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13698050150200151128

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+13Teleop
+23Endgame
+23Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
0Leave6
5Coral scored#2
26Coral points10
26Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +3
21Coral scored#24
77Coral points86
4Processor algae#2
2Net algae#2
24Processor points12
8Net points8
32Algae points20
109Total teleop106
Reef
9L4#12
7L3#5
7L2#5
3L1 · trough#4
32Game pieces#30
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +23
0Foul points0
151Total score128

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
68.41.8
65.367.1
Auto14.1
Teleop47.2
End7.1
red by 12.4
7257
#12
56.01.9
47.249.1
Auto12.3
Teleop37.7
End6.0
Second
6175
#14
35.63.0
27.030.1
Auto5.8
Teleop27.6
End2.1
red by 8.9
2503
#35
26.73.2
25.628.8
Auto3.5
Teleop20.8
End2.3
Third
4226
#27
15.81.8
20.121.9
Auto2.9
Teleop9.9
End3.0
blue by 2.3
4182
#22
18.03.2
14.918.1
Auto2.8
Teleop14.0
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
90%Auto oddsEarned71%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
27%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
48%Barge oddsEarned53%Barge oddsMissed