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Red111
59968.5
250239.5
249158.7
Blue87
345421.4
388343.6
392626.3
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10610105015020011187

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+30Teleop
+30Endgame
+24Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
6Leave6
3Coral scored#2
17Coral points10
23Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +23
9Coral scored#8
34Coral points27
3Processor algae#1
5Net algae#4
18Processor points6
20Net points16
38Algae points22
72Total teleop49
Reef
5L4#3
3L3#3
2L2#3
2L1 · trough#1
20Game pieces#15
Bargelevel
16Cage & park16
16Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +24
0Foul points6
111Total score87

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2491
#6Sur
58.70.2
48.048.3
Auto14.1
Teleop37.8
End6.7
red by 15.2
3883
#11
43.61.3
33.131.8
Auto6.8
Teleop28.6
End8.2
Second
2502
#12
39.50.2
28.028.2
Auto9.2
Teleop24.1
End6.2
red by 13.2
3926
#29
26.32.0
27.625.6
Auto4.4
Teleop18.4
End3.5
Third
5996
#50
8.50.4
20.420.8
Auto3.0
Teleop3.2
End2.4
blue by 12.9
3454
#42
21.42.0
26.824.8
Auto7.1
Teleop13.1
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
81%Auto oddsEarned54%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed18%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
48%Barge oddsEarned74%Barge oddsEarned