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Red85
477840.0
301831.5
554116.6
Blue95
285526.3
363036.8
466330.7
39%Model gave it61%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions84980501502008595

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
Teleop+8
Endgame+8
Fouls+10
Autonomouslevel
9Leave6
1Coral scored#2
7Coral points10
16Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +8
14Coral scored#14
49Coral points49
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#4
6Processor points6
8Net points16
14Algae points22
63Total teleop71
Reef
6L4#6
5L3#5
2L2#4
2L1 · trough#1
18Game pieces#21
Bargelevel
6Cage & park6
6Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +10
0Foul points2
85Total score95

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4778
#27
40.01.1
29.330.4
Auto10.8
Teleop28.4
End0.7
red by 3.2
3630
#28
36.80.6
35.536.1
Auto10.1
Teleop21.5
End5.1
Second
3018
#30
31.51.1
26.928.0
Auto6.6
Teleop22.7
End2.2
red by 0.8
4663
#19
30.70.9
25.226.1
Auto5.0
Teleop24.1
End1.6
Third
5541
#49
16.61.1
19.020.1
Auto3.3
Teleop13.1
End0.2
blue by 9.7
2855
#15
26.30.9
24.024.9
Auto5.4
Teleop17.2
End3.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
57%Auto oddsEarned74%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
26%Barge oddsMissed56%Barge oddsMissed