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Qual 232025 Minnesota 10,000 Lakes Regional
Red167
222057.3
379246.7
706824.9
Blue172
282339.8
417441.8
329750.8
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1301176080100140160180200167172

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+8
Teleop+5
Endgame+5
Fouls+5
AutonomousBlue +8
3Leave3
5Coral scored#7
26Coral points34
29Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +3
24Coral scored#26
88Coral points95
2Processor algae#3
6Net algae#2
12Processor points18
24Net points8
36Algae points26
124Total teleop121
Reef
12L4#14
9L3#11
6L2#4
2L1 · trough#4
37Game pieces#38
Bargelevel
14Cage & park14
14Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +5
0Foul points0
167Total score172

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2220
#18
57.32.2
46.1→48.3
Auto12.2
Teleop44.6
End0.6
red by 6.5
3297
#1
50.83.7
43.6→47.3
Auto11.4
Teleop31.3
End8.1
Second
3792
#8
46.72.2
36.8→39.0
Auto9.4
Teleop30.2
End7.1
red by 4.9
4174
#20
41.85.6
28.9→34.5
Auto10.7
Teleop26.5
End4.5
Third
7068
#33
24.93.7
25.0→28.6
Auto4.1
Teleop17.0
End3.8
blue by 14.8
2823
#7
39.83.7
27.9→31.7
Auto11.1
Teleop25.8
End2.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsEarned77%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
32%Barge oddsEarned42%Barge oddsEarned