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Red176
785031.8
389143.4
604550.3
Blue98
375511.7
363036.8
392626.3
86%Model gave it14%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions114795010015017698

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+86Teleop
+84Endgame
+78Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
0Leave6
5Coral scored#1
23Coral points7
23Total auto13
TeleoperatedRed +76
23Coral scored#13
81Coral points47
4Processor algae#3
11Net algae#2
24Processor points18
44Net points8
68Algae points26
149Total teleop73
Reef
14L4#5
5L3#3
5L2#3
4L1 · trough#3
43Game pieces#19
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +78
0Foul points6
176Total score98

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6045
#26
50.36.4
41.948.3
Auto7.6
Teleop39.5
End3.2
red by 13.5
3630
#28
36.80.3
35.535.2
Auto10.1
Teleop21.5
End5.1
Second
3891
#24
43.46.4
33.239.6
Auto10.6
Teleop30.8
End2.1
red by 17.1
3926
#29
26.30.4
22.121.6
Auto4.4
Teleop18.4
End3.5
Third
7850
#31
31.86.4
21.828.1
Auto5.2
Teleop24.3
End2.3
red by 20.1
3755
#51
11.70.4
15.214.7
Auto3.3
Teleop6.1
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
73%Auto oddsEarned83%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed14%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
40%Barge oddsMissed45%Barge oddsMissed