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Red101
604550.3
253819.0
345421.4
Blue122
621729.6
245028.8
222731.4
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9290050150200101122

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+7Teleop
Endgame+5
Fouls+21
AutonomousBlue +3
3Leave9
3Coral scored#2
13Coral points10
16Total auto19
TeleoperatedRed +10
14Coral scored#11
51Coral points39
3Processor algae#2
3Net algae#5
18Processor points12
12Net points20
30Algae points32
81Total teleop71
Reef
7L4#5
3L3#4
3L2#3
4L1 · trough#1
23Game pieces#20
BargeBlue +12
4Cage & park16
4Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +21
0Foul points16
101Total score122

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6045
#26
50.31.5
48.349.7
Auto7.6
Teleop39.5
End3.2
red by 18.8
2227
#17
31.42.3
29.231.4
Auto5.7
Teleop21.5
End4.2
Second
3454
#42
21.41.5
20.021.4
Auto7.1
Teleop13.1
End1.1
blue by 8.2
29.61.6
26.828.4
Auto7.6
Teleop19.8
End2.2
Third
2538
#16
19.01.5
17.619.0
Auto4.8
Teleop12.9
End1.4
blue by 9.7
2450
#10
28.81.6
26.528.1
Auto3.6
Teleop22.1
End3.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
85%Auto oddsEarned41%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
36%Barge oddsMissed53%Barge oddsEarned