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Red151
301831.5
308247.4
621729.6
Blue101
303821.4
284624.4
249158.7
46%Model gave it54%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11411680100120140160151101

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+40Teleop
+32Endgame
+50Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
9Leave0
6Coral scored#5
28Coral points23
37Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +26
14Coral scored#12
52Coral points44
2Processor algae#1
5Net algae#2
12Processor points6
20Net points8
32Algae points14
84Total teleop58
Reef
8L4#7
6L3#4
2L2#3
4L1 · trough#3
27Game pieces#20
BargeBlue +8
6Cage & park14
6Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +50
24Foul points6
151Total score101

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
47.42.4
44.547.0
Auto14.3
Teleop30.5
End2.6
blue by 11.4
58.70.5
54.854.4
Auto14.1
Teleop37.8
End6.7
Second
3018
#30
31.52.4
28.731.1
Auto6.6
Teleop22.7
End2.2
red by 7.1
2846
#36
24.40.5
24.924.4
Auto4.9
Teleop17.0
End2.5
Third
29.61.7
28.430.1
Auto7.6
Teleop19.8
End2.2
red by 8.2
3038
#40
21.40.7
22.121.4
Auto1.3
Teleop17.0
End3.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
63%Auto oddsEarned54%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
20%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
56%Barge oddsMissed42%Barge oddsEarned