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Red114
284624.4
329750.8
222057.3
Blue170
249158.7
389143.4
857057.7
26%Model gave it74%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions140168100150200250114170

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+23
Teleop+34
Endgame+56
Fouls+56
AutonomousBlue +23
9Leave6
1Coral scored#7
7Coral points33
16Total auto39
TeleoperatedBlue +11
16Coral scored#20
58Coral points73
2Processor algae#2
6Net algae#5
12Processor points12
24Net points20
36Algae points32
94Total teleop105
Reef
9L4#12
4L3#4
2L2#7
2L1 · trough#4
25Game pieces#34
BargeBlue +22
4Cage & park26
4Total endgame26
Penalties & totalBlue +56
0Foul points0
114Total score170

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2220
#18
57.30.4
57.857.3
Auto12.2
Teleop44.6
End0.6
blue by 1.4
58.70.4
56.557.0
Auto14.1
Teleop37.8
End6.7
Second
50.80.4
51.250.8
Auto11.4
Teleop31.3
End8.1
blue by 6.9
57.70.5
54.955.4
Auto10.2
Teleop38.9
End8.6
Third
2846
#36
24.40.4
24.924.4
Auto4.9
Teleop17.0
End2.5
blue by 19.0
3891
#24
43.40.5
40.541.1
Auto10.6
Teleop30.8
End2.1