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Red130
310044.7
388348.3
247033.7
Blue30
253114.8
36108.8
285519.3
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16647010015020025013030

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+68Teleop
+92Endgame
+100Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
3Leave6
4Coral scored#0
20Coral points0
23Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +51
16Coral scored#5
59Coral points18
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#1
6Processor points0
8Net points4
14Algae points4
73Total teleop22
Reef
8L4#2
5L3#1
3L2#1
4L1 · trough#1
23Game pieces#6
BargeRed +24
26Cage & park2
26Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +100
8Foul points0
130Total score30

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
48.31.0
47.846.8
Auto9.2
Teleop32.5
End6.7
red by 29.0
2855
#30
19.31.7
25.724.0
Auto3.6
Teleop13.1
End2.7
Second
3100
#28
44.71.0
48.447.4
Auto3.1
Teleop37.4
End4.3
red by 29.9
2531
#29
14.81.7
18.116.3
Auto0.9
Teleop13.5
End0.5
Third
2470
#15
33.71.0
41.440.3
Auto7.8
Teleop21.3
End4.7
red by 24.9
3610
#26
8.81.7
12.110.4
Auto2.9
Teleop3.7
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
82%Auto oddsEarned42%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
47%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
77%Barge oddsEarned37%Barge oddsMissed