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Red146
318428.7
308254.1
472860.6
Blue61
218121.9
784910.7
247033.7
92%Model gave it8%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1617705010020025014661

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
+69Teleop
+79Endgame
+85Fouls
AutonomousBlue +4
6Leave9
3Coral scored#3
13Coral points14
19Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +73
15Coral scored#7
55Coral points26
4Processor algae#0
7Net algae#2
24Processor points0
28Net points8
52Algae points8
107Total teleop34
Reef
9L4#5
4L3#1
3L2#2
2L1 · trough#2
29Game pieces#12
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +85
6Foul points0
146Total score61

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.60.3
60.560.2
Auto8.4
Teleop42.3
End9.9
red by 26.9
2470
#15
33.71.6
39.838.2
Auto7.8
Teleop21.3
End4.7
Second
54.10.3
50.950.6
Auto15.2
Teleop37.4
End1.5
red by 32.2
2181
#17
21.91.6
27.125.4
Auto7.8
Teleop9.6
End4.4
Third
3184
#14
28.70.3
26.826.5
Auto3.1
Teleop23.2
End2.4
red by 18.0
7849
#22
10.71.6
13.611.9
Auto4.2
Teleop6.8
End-0.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
83%Auto oddsEarned82%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
44%Coral oddsEarned10%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
82%Barge oddsEarned39%Barge oddsMissed