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Red206
205263.7
247230.5
310044.7
Blue196
298747.7
253069.6
318428.7
33%Model gave it67%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13715550100200206196

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
+20Teleop
+10Endgame
+10Fouls
AutonomousBlue +7
3Leave9
5Coral scored#6
27Coral points28
30Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +27
29Coral scored#27
104Coral points97
5Processor algae#3
7Net algae#5
30Processor points18
28Net points20
58Algae points38
162Total teleop135
Reef
10L4#16
11L3#6
9L2#4
4L1 · trough#7
46Game pieces#41
BargeBlue +10
14Cage & park24
14Total endgame24
Penalties & totalRed +10
0Foul points0
206Total score196

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
63.71.6
59.961.6
Auto11.5
Teleop43.3
End8.9
blue by 5.9
69.61.1
68.569.6
Auto15.3
Teleop45.9
End8.4
Second
3100
#28
44.71.6
41.042.6
Auto3.1
Teleop37.4
End4.3
blue by 3.0
47.71.1
46.647.7
Auto14.5
Teleop27.5
End5.8
Third
2472
#19
30.51.6
28.830.5
Auto4.5
Teleop24.8
End1.2
red by 1.8
3184
#14
28.71.1
27.528.7
Auto3.1
Teleop23.2
End2.4