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Red176
472860.6
388348.3
249160.6
Blue190
298747.7
253069.6
318428.7
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions18714750100200250176190

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
Teleop+14
Endgame+14
Fouls+14
AutonomousRed +6
0Leave3
6Coral scored#4
29Coral points20
29Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +20
25Coral scored#23
91Coral points81
2Processor algae#5
5Net algae#8
12Processor points30
20Net points32
32Algae points62
123Total teleop143
Reef
14L4#12
6L3#9
7L2#4
4L1 · trough#2
38Game pieces#40
Bargelevel
24Cage & park24
24Total endgame24
Penalties & totalBlue +14
0Foul points0
176Total score190

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.60.2
60.460.6
Auto12.6
Teleop40.5
End7.5
blue by 9.0
69.61.1
67.468.5
Auto15.3
Teleop45.9
End8.4
Second
60.60.2
60.460.6
Auto8.4
Teleop42.3
End9.9
red by 12.8
47.71.1
45.546.6
Auto14.5
Teleop27.5
End5.8
Third
48.30.2
48.248.3
Auto9.2
Teleop32.5
End6.7
red by 19.7
3184
#14
28.71.1
26.427.5
Auto3.1
Teleop23.2
End2.4