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Red122
305841.4
400950.8
614644.6
Blue171
248035.7
460780.9
565348.5
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1581810100300400122171

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+27
Endgame+49
Fouls+49
AutonomousBlue +3
3Leave3
7Coral scored#7
34Coral points37
37Total auto40
TeleoperatedBlue +24
18Coral scored#20
63Coral points71
1Processor algae#3
3Net algae#4
6Processor points18
12Net points16
18Algae points34
81Total teleop105
Reef
8L4#10
6L3#8
6L2#5
5L1 · trough#4
29Game pieces#34
BargeBlue +22
4Cage & park26
4Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +49
0Foul points0
122Total score171

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4009
#30
50.82.0
52.750.7
Auto11.0
Teleop37.2
End2.6
blue by 30.1
80.90.2
75.675.8
Auto18.3
Teleop54.0
End8.7
Second
6146
#16
44.62.0
46.944.9
Auto4.4
Teleop33.2
End7.0
blue by 3.9
5653
#28
48.50.2
49.249.4
Auto7.1
Teleop37.5
End3.9
Third
3058
#32
41.42.0
44.142.1
Auto9.4
Teleop24.3
End7.7
red by 5.7
2480
#33
35.70.2
34.534.7
Auto9.1
Teleop17.2
End9.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsEarned92%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
30%Coral oddsMissed30%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
80%Barge oddsMissed85%Barge oddsEarned