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Red70
181640.5
543434.6
251818.8
Blue71
527113.9
340727.5
223927.1
89%Model gave it11%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1054701502007071

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
Teleop+15
Endgame+1
Fouls+1
AutonomousRed +14
6Leave9
3Coral scored#0
17Coral points0
23Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +29
5Coral scored#11
17Coral points40
0Processor algae#1
2Net algae#2
0Processor points6
8Net points8
8Algae points14
25Total teleop54
Reef
4L4#5
2L3#2
1L2#2
1L1 · trough#2
10Game pieces#14
BargeRed +14
16Cage & park2
16Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +1
6Foul points6
70Total score71

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1816
#23
40.51.9
38.937.0
Auto6.1
Teleop25.6
End8.8
red by 13.0
3407
#25
27.51.9
18.120.0
Auto5.5
Teleop20.0
End2.1
Second
5434
#24
34.62.6
30.327.8
Auto9.1
Teleop17.0
End8.4
red by 7.4
2239
#29
27.11.4
21.723.1
Auto3.3
Teleop20.0
End3.7
Third
2518
#40
18.82.6
17.915.3
Auto6.2
Teleop12.9
End-0.3
red by 4.9
5271
#36
13.91.4
8.39.7
Auto4.0
Teleop8.7
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
66%Auto oddsMissed37%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
9%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
68%Barge oddsEarned26%Barge oddsMissed