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Red156
247047.8
223927.1
417455.9
Blue104
298743.4
305511.6
214335.9
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1248450100150200156104

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+40Teleop
+52Endgame
+52Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
9Leave9
4Coral scored#2
21Coral points10
30Total auto19
TeleoperatedRed +29
16Coral scored#12
58Coral points43
3Processor algae#2
6Net algae#4
18Processor points12
24Net points16
42Algae points28
100Total teleop71
Reef
8L4#4
6L3#3
4L2#4
2L1 · trough#3
29Game pieces#20
BargeRed +12
26Cage & park14
26Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +52
0Foul points0
156Total score104

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
55.93.0
44.747.7
Auto13.3
Teleop33.6
End9.0
red by 12.5
2987
#14
43.41.5
34.335.8
Auto8.7
Teleop32.4
End2.3
Second
47.83.0
41.844.9
Auto6.2
Teleop36.5
End5.1
red by 12.0
2143
#21
35.91.5
34.936.4
Auto9.5
Teleop20.6
End5.8
Third
2239
#29
27.13.0
24.327.3
Auto3.3
Teleop20.0
End3.7
red by 15.5
3055
#43
11.61.5
12.213.7
Auto0.9
Teleop8.9
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
72%Auto oddsEarned65%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
9%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
43%Barge oddsEarned48%Barge oddsEarned