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Red165
340727.5
614760.5
217537.4
Blue168
304220.9
320647.1
250838.3
86%Model gave it14%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1298950100150200165168

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
+5Teleop
Endgame+5
Fouls+3
AutonomousRed +6
6Leave6
6Coral scored#5
30Coral points24
36Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +1
26Coral scored#24
95Coral points86
3Processor algae#2
2Net algae#6
18Processor points12
8Net points24
26Algae points36
121Total teleop122
Reef
9L4#8
11L3#7
7L2#9
5L1 · trough#5
37Game pieces#37
BargeBlue +10
6Cage & park16
6Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +3
2Foul points0
165Total score168

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.52.2
55.157.3
Auto18.3
Teleop35.5
End6.7
red by 13.5
3206
#16
47.14.5
35.339.8
Auto9.5
Teleop32.5
End5.1
Second
2175
#38
37.43.7
25.929.7
Auto9.5
Teleop26.1
End1.7
blue by 0.9
2508
#10
38.34.5
32.036.5
Auto12.7
Teleop22.2
End3.4
Third
3407
#25
27.53.7
25.128.8
Auto5.5
Teleop20.0
End2.1
red by 6.7
3042
#22
20.94.5
12.116.6
Auto5.4
Teleop13.9
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
87%Auto oddsEarned83%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
23%Coral oddsEarned7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
60%Barge oddsMissed51%Barge oddsEarned