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Red100
250838.3
878713.4
217725.5
Blue74
387123.0
320647.1
257419.4
71%Model gave it29%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9781406012014016010074

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+18Auto
+16Teleop
+14Endgame
+26Fouls
AutonomousRed +18
6Leave0
5Coral scored#2
24Coral points12
30Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +2
12Coral scored#13
44Coral points46
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#1
6Processor points6
4Net points4
10Algae points10
54Total teleop56
Reef
8L4#5
2L3#3
4L2#5
3L1 · trough#2
19Game pieces#17
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +26
12Foul points0
100Total score74

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2508
#10
38.30.6
36.537.0
Auto12.7
Teleop22.2
End3.4
blue by 8.8
3206
#16
47.10.4
39.840.2
Auto9.5
Teleop32.5
End5.1
Second
2177
#34
25.50.6
24.324.9
Auto3.8
Teleop21.3
End0.4
red by 2.5
3871
#35
23.00.7
19.119.8
Auto5.4
Teleop13.7
End3.9
Third
8787
#41
13.40.9
19.019.9
Auto4.3
Teleop7.4
End1.7
blue by 6.0
2574
#39
19.40.7
9.29.8
Auto5.6
Teleop8.8
End4.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
66%Auto oddsEarned65%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
25%Barge oddsMissed77%Barge oddsMissed