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Red135
417455.9
375117.9
250030.3
Blue122
257419.4
340727.5
369131.8
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11572050100150200250135122

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+15Teleop
+13Endgame
+13Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
3Leave0
4Coral scored#3
20Coral points13
23Total auto13
TeleoperatedRed +5
19Coral scored#19
70Coral points69
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#3
12Processor points12
16Net points12
28Algae points24
98Total teleop93
Reef
12L4#5
4L3#8
3L2#6
4L1 · trough#3
29Game pieces#27
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +13
0Foul points0
135Total score122

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
55.91.4
46.948.3
Auto13.3
Teleop33.6
End9.0
red by 24.0
3691
#26
31.82.6
28.030.6
Auto4.0
Teleop24.6
End3.2
Second
2500
#12
30.31.4
29.430.8
Auto6.6
Teleop21.4
End2.4
red by 2.8
3407
#25
27.54.1
25.529.6
Auto5.5
Teleop20.0
End2.1
Third
3751
#17
17.92.2
20.422.6
Auto4.7
Teleop11.1
End2.1
blue by 1.5
2574
#39
19.44.1
12.616.7
Auto5.6
Teleop8.8
End4.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
82%Auto oddsEarned55%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed10%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
77%Barge oddsEarned34%Barge oddsEarned